I think the watch was Smurf telling J she knew he stole the properties and murdered Morgan. Which is her saying also she has something on him she can tell police. She's in the clear because not only is she the victim of the fraud, she was in jail when it went down. And even the police have to know that the person who stole the properties is the one with the most pressing need to shut up Morgan permanently, especially after Smurf gets out. She's both promising him that he can be the number two and defying him to make the same mistake Baz made. By the way, since Julia was kicked out for incest with Baz, it is almost certain Baz was the father. (Yes, Baz and Julia were not genetically brother and sister. But I feel being raised as brother and sister gives it even more squick than blood siblings who never lived together in a family mating. And I suspect Julia's addictions were not helped by feeling guilt.)
J's fury at Smurf may be even more intense because of guilt over his killing his mother, even if it was unintentional (not sure at this point.) Punishing Smurf for his crime is a kind of psychological displacement of guilt, I think.
Smurf not having Lucy killed along with Baz becomes more and more bizarre. Lucy not looking for Smurf to come after her is amazingly stupid, however convenient for Smurf and the writers. Lucy not killing Smurf herself is unlikely in a cartel queen. The only thing that even makes the slightest sense is that Lucy was convinced that Pope would off Smurf, much safer and more satisfying. Then it's not surprising such a ridiculous scheme would turn out to be a Darwin Award winner.
If I were Pete and Tina, I would not repeatedly abuse a killer. Motivating her to betray them, or maybe just shoot them in the back, is remarkably stupid. I have no idea why she didn't sell Pete and Tina to Lucy, who would no doubt have paid her, unlike Pete and Tina. I see it on screen and I still can't believe it.
The episode description talks about the price they have to pay for getting their share of the money. So I think in one way or another all of them have been shafted by Smurf. It's most obvious with Pope, of course. He lost Lena because Smurf made it clear that she was going to make Lena miserable. J has been threatened with Baz' fate. It's not so obvious with Craig, but I suspect that Frankie is friendly with Smurf. Smurf may even have planned Frankie's job. At any rate, I can't see Frankie being with Billy. If Billy was the best she could do, she wouldn't be the kind of person who could pull off conning the rich guy. Maybe she was using Billy as an entree into the Cody family, switching targets from Deran to Craig? Still, I'm inclined to think Frankie is basically Smurf's Craig-walker. At this point I'm pretty sure that Adrian was lured by an agent of Smurf and ratted out. I can't see Smurf being gay friendly.
Pope on some level knows he can't really cope, so he's in a bind. He needs somebody and Smurf is the only one offering. Craig is too consumed with his addictions to want anything but more, i.e., the status quo. Deran is too stupid to realize he really wants out or even truly grasp how messed up Pope is, much less how to help. J? The thing about J is that he doesn't just want revenge, he also wants the money. The threat about taking away everyone she loves was kind of strange. It's not at all clear why he thinks she loves anyone. I think it just means he plans on killing all his uncles first. But that's more of a disarming Smurf move, taking away her weapons, not breaking her heart.
Edited August 22, 2018 by sjohnsonncG1vNJzZmien6fCrr%2BNqamipZWptq6x0WeaqKVfqbyxtcJobmxrYGl6tHySnmhsZaSdsm602J6lmqtf